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| Reports
rebut rumors of looming recession By Joe Richter, Bloomberg News | November 4, 2006 WASHINGTON -- The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a five-year low of 4.4 percent in October and growth in service industries accelerated, countering speculation the economy is headed for recession. Employers added 92,000 workers last month, the Labor Department said . That followed gains of 148,000 in September and 230,000 in August that were higher than initially estimated. The Institute for Supply Management's index of nonmanufacturing businesses, which account for 90 percent of the economy, rose more than economists forecast to 57.1 in October. The figures show the economy is bearing up under the weight of the housing-industry rout that drove the pace of expansion last quarter to the slowest since 2003. The dollar rallied, and bond yields jumped as traders scaled back bets of a broader slowdown that would force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. "Today's report sounds the death knell for those forecasting recession next year," said Chris Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. "The employment report is always the biggest of the month, and it can change views overnight 180 degrees." The reports give Republicans good news to shout in the final days before the midterm elections Tuesday that threaten their control of Congress. "The great news for the American worker is that there are lots of jobs out there, and that's good for America," said Allan Hubbard, director of the White House's National Economic Council . "The American worker is enjoying the benefits of this economy." The figures probably won't erase voter dismay over the mounting death toll from the war in Iraq and scandals involving Republican members of Congress, say Bush's opponents. "What you have is a real heartache about Iraq, about the pain that is going on there," said Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat and his party's ranking member of Congress's Joint Economic Committee. "Right behind that in voters' minds is the thought that 'the future doesn't look bright to me and, more importantly, my children.' " The revisions for the prior two months added 139,000 jobs to payroll growth, and come after the government in October said the economy gained 810,000 more jobs than previously estimated in the year ended in March. Increased job growth will fuel wage gains, keeping consumers spending and providing a lift for an economy that faltered last quarter, economists said. Workers' average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent after increasing 0.2 percent the previous month. "The Fed is going to say this is an economy that has legs to it," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, N.C. The revisions added jobs in finance, education, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality. Manufacturers shed 39,000 jobs last month, the biggest drop since July 2003, after cutting 12,000 jobs in September Builders shed 26,000 jobs, the most since February 2003, after adding 5,000 jobs in the prior month. |
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